[[Notes]] - Topics: [[Problem-solving]] - People: [[Liv Boeree]] - Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M --- ## Summary - Despite (theoretically) perfect planning, luck always plays a factor in the outcome. - [[Our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning]]. [[The most dangerous thing a young actor or actress can do is believe in their own publicity]]. - Quantify your thinking. Improve the precision of your ideas and communications by thinking and speaking in numbers. [[When we speak in numbers, we know what lands in the other person's brain]]. - Do not rely on intuition alone for larger more important decisions. [[While we shouldn't ignore our intuition, we shouldn't over privilege them either]]. ## Notes ### Luck - Like poker, life is a game of skill and luck. - Outcomes are not completely dependent nor predictable based on perfect decision making. Luck (and chance) always have a say in the outcome. - AMBIGUITY makes it difficult for us to know the effectiveness of our STRATEGIES - especially if we're experiencing SUCCESS. [[The most dangerous thing a young actor or actress can do is believe in their own publicity]]. - Until you realize and act upon the truth, [[Your unshakable truth|your truth]], you risk extrinsic value due to self delusion. - [[Everyone is a genius in a bull market]]. - When we're experiencing success, we must ask ourselves, how much of it is down to luck? [[Our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning]]. ### Quantification - "Poker is a game of probability and precision." - "You have to train yourself to think in numbers." - Because of the vague and inaccurate interpretations of hand-wavy words like "probably", it's actually useless in conveying any real information. - [[When we speak in numbers, we know what lands in the other person's brain]]. ### Intuition - [[Our intuitions aren't as perfect as we'd like to believe]]. - "Our gut is extremely vulnerable to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases." - Our gut, our intuition, is really good at everyday minor things that we have a lot of experience in. Such as estimating if we can fit our car in a tight parking spot. - When it comes to really big life things, we should favour slow and proper analysis over fast and wild gut-based guesses. - [[While we shouldn't ignore our intuition, we shouldn't over privilege them either]]. ### Summary - [[Success is sweetest when you achieve it across a large sample size]]. - [[Your gut is your friend, and so is a cost-benefit analysis]]. - [[The future is unknown, but you can dam well try and estimate it]].